A senior Canadian official confirmed on Thursday that Ottawa is actively working toward a face-to-face meeting between Carney and Xi, in what would be the first high-level Canada-China dialogue since relations soured several years ago over trade restrictions, technology disputes, and the detention of Canadian citizens.
“We’re hopeful that a meeting can take place on the sidelines of APEC,” the official told Reuters. “There’s interest on both sides in stabilizing relations and discussing areas of mutual benefit.”
A Relationship in Need of Repair
Canada-China relations have been on a rollercoaster over the past decade. Following diplomatic tensions linked to technology security, agricultural bans, and human-rights disputes, trade between the two nations has fallen sharply from its pre-2019 peak.
In August 2025, Beijing imposed anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola, accusing exporters of selling below market value. The move came just months after Ottawa slapped tariffs on Chinese electric-vehicle (EV) imports, citing unfair subsidies — a tit-for-tat exchange that signaled renewed strain.
Now, as Canada seeks to diversify its trade beyond the United States, rebuilding bridges with China has become both a strategic necessity and a diplomatic challenge.
“Canada cannot afford to isolate itself from the world’s second-largest economy,” said Dr. Michael Tan, a professor of international economics at the University of British Columbia. “But engagement with China must be based on clear rules and reciprocity — not dependency.”
Strategic Timing for Carney
For Prime Minister Mark Carney, the potential meeting represents an opportunity to reassert Canada’s role in Asia just as his government pushes a broader “Global Diversification Strategy” to double non-U.S. exports by 2035.
Observers say Carney’s background as a former central banker gives him credibility in economic diplomacy — a valuable asset as Canada navigates both tense U.S. relations and the need to re-open trade channels with Beijing.
“The timing couldn’t be more delicate,” said former ambassador Guy Saint-Jacques. “Carney is trying to show that Canada can engage China responsibly while maintaining its principles and alliances.”
What’s on the Table
If the meeting goes ahead, officials expect discussions to focus on:
Lifting trade restrictions on Canadian agricultural products such as canola, beef, and seafood.
Clean-tech cooperation, especially in critical minerals and green manufacturing.
Restoring business and educational exchanges, which have slowed since the pandemic and subsequent diplomatic rifts.
Regional security, including Canada’s stance on Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Both sides are cautious — Canadian officials emphasized that “no formal agenda has been confirmed,” but sources say early groundwork has been laid through diplomatic channels in Beijing and Ottawa.
A Careful Balancing Act
The potential outreach to China comes at a sensitive moment for Canada’s foreign policy. Just days ago, U.S. President Donald Trump ended all trade negotiations with Canada, sharply criticizing Ottawa in a televised address.
Analysts say that dynamic gives Carney a stronger incentive to broaden Canada’s economic partnerships, but also increases the diplomatic risk of appearing to drift away from Washington.
“Carney is walking a tightrope,” said policy analyst Hannah Lau of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. “He’s signalling independence without alienating allies — a hard balance to strike.”
Global Reactions and Business Response
International observers see Canada’s initiative as a sign of pragmatism. Business leaders in both countries have quietly urged governments to re-engage, noting that bilateral trade still exceeded $80 billion in 2024, even amid political tension.
Chinese media have also hinted at a “window of opportunity” to restore dialogue, describing Carney as “a pragmatic leader open to cooperation.”
Canadian exporters — especially in agriculture and clean technology — are watching closely. Many see renewed access to the Chinese market as essential for growth if U.S. trade channels continue to shrink.
The Bottom Line
The potential Carney-Xi meeting could mark a turning point in Canada’s Asia policy — from caution and confrontation to cautious engagement.
If successful, it may reopen the door to billions in trade and investment while reaffirming Canada’s place in the Indo-Pacific. But failure or missteps could deepen mistrust with both China and the United States.
For now, the world’s attention will be on Seoul, where Canada’s next diplomatic chapter may quietly begin.